MG, Re: The Pause That Refreshes
Does this train run out of track??? Boy, FA TB has tried to call this one several times over the last several years and has been wrong every time. Thus, I will admit to have given up trying to guess when the tracks come to an end; yet, I understand that the results will not be pleasant.
Everything suggests from a FA perspective that we need a major pause to get some of speculative froth out of the market. I am convinced that until the Big Boyz return to their "normal" northeasterly rise, it is just not going to happen.
CNBC loves to point to the internutz. However, their excesses IMHO are no greater than that of the Big Boyz. Therefore, until I see GE, IBM, MRK, etc. correcting to the historical normal, let alone CSCO, MSFT, or DELL, I say let's enjoy the ride.
While I want to enjoy the ride, I repeat to all: In the 7,000+ stocks in my investment universe at 11/30/98, 65% were negative for 1 year stock performance. Only 316 stocks of these 7,000+ stocks beat the Index over 1-, 3-, and five years. The 25 day a/d line is negative and the 25 day new highs/lows, that I maintain, looks sick.
From my simple FA perspective, we can expect a 6-7% increase in the Index this year. We are above that now. The only thing for sure is that we are going to witness a lot of volatility. This only works to the advantage of the Hit and Run concept.
JMHO FWIW
Berney |
