Hello Staff,
Wanted to bring this to your attention:
Chip
Solar Eclispes and Declines---25 Jan-Feb 3 and 22-31 July 1999
The entire article can be found at these web sites
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stockmarketcycles.com
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calendarresearch.com
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MAJOR MARKET WEAKNESS DISPLAYED
When we originally presented the following material in early 1998 and when we updated it for presentation on this website in July 1998, we made a case for a potential market crash in September or October 1998. The stock market did see some dramatic weakness into the October 8 time period, but it was not a crash by any means. Because of the markets dramatic overvaluation, however, we will continue to update the periods most likely to see a crash according to the Puetz criteria given below. Here is how we explained those criteria in mid 1998:
We seldom use much newsletter space for the ideas of others, but the theories we
are about to present fit together so well, we believe you will find them as interesting as
we do. The two researchers are Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") and Chris Carolan. Chris just won the 1998 Charles H. Dow Award for his original research and the
complete article is offered on his website at calendarresearch.com. The
research by Puetz was first noted in our October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we
wrote:
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow
connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between
astronomical configurations and market timing, let’s simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in generaland a lunar full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in historywould accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a fullmoon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power ----- less than one chance in 127,000
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse--when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
There are two lunar eclipses scheduled for 1999, on January 31 and July 28.There are two solar eclipses scheduled, on February 16 and August 11. If a 1999 crash isto take place within the above discovered parameters as delineated by Mr. Puetz, such a crash should begin between January 25 to February 3 or between July 22 to July 31. When wesay "such a crash should begin," we mean a top of some kind leading to a decline of 35-50% within a few short weeks could begin within those time frames.
We emphasize again that crashes tend to be generational in nature. To attempt to
predict the timing of one would appear to be foolheardy, but it could be fun, at worst,
and financially enriching, at best, if the above dates prove to be prophetic. We will
attempt to keep this website updated from time to time with further details of the above
possibilities.
page updated 12/18/98
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