Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 0.896

-0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tony van Werkhooven who wrote (11956)	1/18/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) of 22640

Well Tony, kinda looks like if everything remained equal overnight, based on an unconfirmed Bovespa closing figure of 7113 +367 +5.43% and the real at 1.59 (youch) that we would expect TBH to gap down in the 65 range in the morning. I still expect additional short covering may bolster it from the get go, depending on Congressional rumors etc in Brazil in the morning, but looks like we actually lost ground today. I think we may see some more buyers trying to get in cheap. OTOH, we could see a mass of selling from many who got in on the way up. Wonder if traders in Brazil take the currency into account as the bid these things up. I didn't like the story that Malan will recommend initial tightening of interest rates. I really disliked the story of all the backed up pension money that one state suggested the Federal government owed all states (don't think I ever remember this coming up), and of course we're waiting to see if Itmar made any progress or made himself more the fool. Again, based on an unfirmed closing real figure of 1.59, looks like it's down about 24% since the onset of this mess last week. Interestingly TBH up about 24% (using US$53 as a TBH low and Fridays closing figure of approx 69.5). sf sf

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