Hello Richard,
I went through the proper netiquette on this, and am putting this up because I am going to do what I can to run for daylight for us gold and silver family people. This press release will go out to 600,000 analysts, 500 on-line services and the mainstream press at 5 AM tomorrow.
If I am given a chance, I am going to do whatever I can to raise the heat level for the gold shorts. We in the gold industry have paid the price too long to support the junkie habits of hedge funds and fears of our "offialdom". It is time to point out what is going one and rage like lions about how the "big boys" have been playing with the gold market.
The time to strike is NOW. Today-AP- Tokyo-Miyazawa-"The dollar's one-currency dominance is over". This can only be construed constructively for gold and might finally put some wind at our back.
The second piece is from Le Metropole member, who is very highly regarded in the financial community. His commentary is right on.
The bugler is sounding attack,
Bill
Le Metropole
lemetropolecafe.com
January 18, 1999
Le Metropole Inc.
1079 Ocean Boulevard
Rye, New Hampshire, 03870
USA
For Immediate Release
Contact:
Bill Murphy
Le Metropole Inc.
603 433 9389
midasnh@aol.com
Peabody, Tice and Murphy Predict Coming Chaos in the Financial Markets
Three of the prominent contributors to www.lemetropolecafe.com have issued commentary, alerting Le Metropole members to severe financial market stress that looms on the very near horizon.
Charles Peabody is one of the most highly regarded banking analysts on Wall Street and is often quoted by Alan Abelson, Editor in Chief of Barrons. Peabody, in his recently posted commentary at the Hemingway Table:
" As for the fundamental themes, I shifted my emphasis earlier last fall when the Fed began to ease in an effort to bail out the capital markets and when the world's government bodies set out to rescue Brazil. As I state back then, significant changes in government policies will create unintended consequences and it is our job as analysts to anticipate when the next sea change will be"…..After a brief Fed-induced rally, bank stocks are likely to resume their descent….I see no value in bank stocks and at current levels and expect at least two more years of price weakness and 60% to 80% of downside….it will unfold in the form of a CRASH".
David Tice is often seen on CNBC, articulating the bear case. He has a vast array of institutional clients and also is the portfolio manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, which was the number one performing mutual fund in the United States in the third quarter of last year. Tice, in his recently posted commentary at the Dos Passos Table:
"Recent data provide clear evidence that Japan and Asian economies are still in depression, Latin America is quickly sinking into recession and acute financial stress, European (and particularly emerging East European economies) economies are slowing rapidly, and the American manufacturing and agricultural sectors are faltering".
"The reality remains that the global crises has made it very close to home just as we have reached the climax of an unprecedented speculative mania and economic bubble. We are in the very early stages of a Latin American crises that will prove much more troubling for the US financial markets and economy than the bulls believe today".
Bill Murphy was written up in the Wall Street Journal in August 1988: "Trader Bill Murphy's Correct Call On Rise in Price of Copper Pays Off". He also thinks we are headed for financial market turmoil and believes that after many years of benign neglect, both the gold and silver markets are poised for dramatic bull market moves.
It is his opinion the gold market has been controlled by "officialdom and their henchmen" for some time, but that there are very recent signs that times could be changing. In his commentary at the James Joyce Table, Murphy has presented a great deal of anecdotal evidence over a period of time that Goldman Sachs ( Secretary Treasury Rubin's former firm ), for many reasons, has led a price capping attack on gold along with other New York financial institutions.
The first sign of a change of this environment was the recent break out in silver. Second, is a recent Goldman Sachs foreign exchange department release predicting a " a gold breakout". Third, is a Goldman Sachs conference call calling for a major fall in the dollar. Fourth, is the urging by U.S. officials to the Brazilians to devalue their currency after congratulating the Chinese for not doing so.
To review all this commentary:
lemetropolecafe.com
BRAZIL, GOLD & THE APPLE
Dear Ms Press:
You raised some good questions with your 1/15/99 Gold, Brazil wire. The questions are in abundance, the answers are rare.
I believe you are attempting to report on one of the most intriguing financial mysteries of the last ten years. Sharpen your instincts and pencil....the answers are out there. Remember this; the gold market is very opaque and lacks transparency. It is also, much much larger and active than people realize. I do not envy your task, however I do wish you luck.
As a reporter, always start by asking yourself.... why am I getting this answer; from this person? What do they have to gain or lose? Also, if possible ask those who give orders....not take them. Take your questions up the ladder and you will find very few willing to talk with you...Why? Because your questions are now very close to home.
Gold is a proxy....Its composition is both political as well as financial. The role it plays is far greater than what Newspapers have been conditioned to report, just ask Alan Greenspan or review various papers he has written over the years.
Some will have you believe gold is a mere commodity, again, who is saying this and more importantly ....why?
The answer is because gold is a threat and its upward movement presently brings more harm than good.
Ask yourself : What is a gold carry, what is a yen carry? Answer: Cheap sources of money. Tremendous amounts of monies from these simple transactions have helped to fuel the market's . Over the last three years as gold was leased into the market it was often sold short, which in turn was leveraged again into various other derivatives.....A chain has been created...... all stemming from the source or first link.
Ms Press, try to get an estimate of how short the gold market really is? Estimates range from 4,000 to 12,000 tons. Ask Mr. O'Neill . No one really knows or they are scared to tell you. Again the market is very opaque. A lease is an I.O.U. , however, in this case what was borrowed in reality has been sold....This is THE problem because it is to a great extent unrecoverable.
Historically, no one sounds the alarm until the damage has been done. The situation came to attention in Asia was exposed in Russia , now plays out in Latin America (Brazil). Excessive reward, as in the Asian miracle usually comes at the expense of excessive abuse: In this case poor or totally ignorant lending practices.
Because gold practices are very secret and closely guarded...One can only speculate on why it has not responded in dollar terms... YET. If that market was transparent for one day, gold would be up $200. Because the stakes are too high, this would never happen. It is allot like a pressure cooker the parties involved can't take the lid off , for fear of the financial affects on other positions and they can't keep the lid on, for sooner rather than later market forces will blow it off. The parties involved need time to slowly relieve the pressure.
Ms Press, there is plenty of ignorance and abuse to go around, starting with Central Banks and carrying down to the producers.
Again, I will say you are sitting on a huge story about to unfold. Efforts over the last couple of years to debunk and discredit are smoke screens to cover up unchecked abuse. Gold did not fall before or during the Brazilian debacle, rather it was pushed and held by some very large players who have a lot to loose. There are systemic problems that have to be addressed; the last thing parties want to do is compound it with a runaway Gold Market. Ask the question of your various sources, just how short is the Gold Market? The "worm is in the apple" and it is now time to tell the story .
Le Metropole member
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