johnd,
I have looked back at your posts and you are very consistent in sticking to valuation measures and buying low and becoming more concerned on overappreciation of the shares. I think you will be right about your future price predictions UNLESS, as in January 1997, MSFT has a huge quarter. I have held for 5+ years on most of my shares,a few from '89, but lightened up in 1/97 due to pe expansion. Then msft announced one it's most shocking upside surprise ever, and followed it with a strong fiscal q3. I think the possibility is there for a stunner, in light of INTC's numbers, and how firm msft was with analysts at the last cc.("Your numbers are too low.") We could get a .63-.65 quarter with guidance toward .65-.68 for the next q, and we all know the next year will be up another 30% easily with the roll outs coming.
Before I get flamed too much I am in agreement that if it is a .61 q, we will fall, and perhaps to 120 in a correction. But this is starting to feel like early '97, when the market seemed to know msft was blowing out the numbers and the next year looked good. Mike Brown was giddy on that cc.
If msft opens up 5+ Tuesday, I will sell some too, just to be safe. If your scenario is right, we will look more like fiscal q4 of 97,when we shot from 120-150, and then faded to 118 5 months later, and not fiscal q2. |
