Hi Steve,
<...Zito looks at $$/POP where WNP's spectrum is valued at $6.61/POP or 3.7x the auction price. He states his (or maybe Reagan's?) valuation for TGNT figures to be $16/POP with WCII at $19/POP (but it seems they didn't use channel-POPs) ...>
I assume here POP just means population coverage and in no way factors in the quantity of spectrum covering each POP??? This doesn't make any sense to me. At least using channel-pops attempts to compare apples to apples. Especially if we use the Bernard factors (ie one channel at 24 GHz=80 MHz, 28 GHz = 85 MHz, 38 GHz = 100MHz).
I wonder how he valued WNP?
$695M/114M POP = $6.1/POP
If we're to value the licenses on the top 40 markets or so, I'd believe Nextlink has about 1000 MHz, WinStar 750 MHz, and Teligent probably 240 MHz (or so, I don't remember where I put Teligents prospectus). Using Bernards channel factors, I'd say NXLK has 12 channels, WinStar 7.5 channels, and TGNT about 3 channels. It'd be interesting to see how LM factors this in. I would think this would mean you'd have to value winStar's licenses at least twice Teligents, and NXLK's at 4 times Teligents (on a $/POP basis).
I suppose that's why he thinks it's a negative for WinStar and Teligent. This would value WinStar's licenses at only around $3.75/POP (instead of their $19/POP) and Teligent at around $1.50/POP (instead of $16/POP).
At least I think we're at a point in the game now where the dollar value of the licenses is pretty meaningless. Numbers like these two or three years ago may have sunk us.
<...If it's determined that WNP and NXLK agreed BEFORE the last auction to not bid in the same markets, this wouldn't have a bearing on the auction and would not be considered collusion?>
I'll be very interested to see if the FCC comments on this. If anyone sees anything, please post.
Seems they need another bidding restriction; noone in the auction can sell out to anyone else in the auction within three years. |
