Donald: I took a look at your wedge. It is a rising wedge the expected norm would be for a bearish break. As you know, I do not use pitchforks, so I really can not comment on them. But it is an interesting scenario. Couple the wedge formation with the smaller formation within it the H&S and it adds to the bearish scenario, at least short-term.
To All: As expected the Market as measured by the Dow traded basically within the parameters I gave Thursday night using Thursday's closing computations of the centerline and lower band of the long term trading envelope for Friday's approximates.
Note the DJI “actual” high for Friday was 9342.61, the computed centerline for Friday's close was 9342.66. The DJI “actual” low was 9127.16 and the computed number for Friday's lower band of the envelope was 9085.73. As expected the Dow closed with in the lower half of the moving envelope at 9340.55
Don't be fooled by Friday's strong move up. As stated in the Thursday's Road Kill MDA, the Market as measured by the Dow has moved into the lower half of its long term trading channel. Statistically it tends to stay there for a few days and as of late the initial move into this range has produce a bearish formation, a pennant or flag.
The 50 day SMA and the lower band of the long term moving trading channel will continue to give strong support. As most know, I do not like H&S patterns as I find them less reliable, but I keep looking over my shoulder at the current formation on the daily chart. It is currently forming the second shoulder. (Remember the fairly tell of a series of three H&S patterns marking the end to this bull...Sorry Bobby B, I had to throw that in there...<g>)
I am expecting a trading range tomorrow still confined approximately by the lower half of the trading envelope. It would be possible for the DJI to close slightly up and still remain in the lower half of the envelope, but I suspect the DJI will close down. (Any significant break above or below the lower half half of the trading envelope would signal a continued move in that direction. Use Friday's closing numbers for Tuesday's approximates.)
In addition, my short/medium term oscillator is at a support area as of Friday's close. If it moves below this support area, it will signal further pullback for the DJI at least short-term.
Note: I could throw in the Advance Decline line or the McOsc and other traditional indicators, but others have already pointed them out.
(All Disclaimers Apply)
BWDIK
Regards,
LG
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