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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?
YHOO 52.580.0%Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Big Dog who wrote (740)1/19/1999 5:59:00 AM
From: KeepItSimple  Read Replies (2) of 3543
 
1. Whatever date amazon releases earnings.
And here's why:

Guys, has it occured that Amazon might be getting ready to "throw the fight" on the
22nd?

Everyone know this bubble is getting dangerous. Hell, it's already dangerous. People are
commenting on how the fed is jawboning the market, and the internet stocks are like an
infectious disease that's starting to make the rest of the market crazier.

Tightening margin requirements hasn't done any good, the speculators keep bidding
these things up. Splitting 2:1 instead of 5:1 only made Yahoo correct a little bit- it's still
worth about 1000 P/E.

What the internuts need is one quarter of bad numbers. Amazon has already warned
their losses would be bigger than expected this quarter, even though their revenues were
up big. Have you noticed not a single analyst has lowered their estimates yet? This time
last quarter they were coming out of the woodwork, with about 5 downward revisions
in the 6 days before the release. This time, nothing.

Amazon needs cash, and they know they'll never float a secondary with their shares
currently trading around 600 dollars pre-split. I honestly think they're going to be trading
at around 60 dollars within 3 days of their quarterly report. I think they'll "miss" analyst
estimates by a huge margin due to extremely high costs for overtime workers during
christmas.
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