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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (5793)1/19/1999 8:13:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (2) of 78490
 
<Shorting overvalued stocks..selling calls> Glad to see ideas on how to capture widest spreads between intrinsic value and price. However, 90% of option players lose. The ones that win usually are selling rather than buying premium [like your suggested strategy] and are full-time professionals with real-time info - quotes and arbitrage model calculations & access to lowest bid-asked spreads. Occasional players dabbling in strategies are their lunch. Occasionally 5 sigma events blow the pro's out of the water when something that can't happen does [Crash of 87 produced lots of this, also collapse of Long term Capital Management]. Highfliers like net stocks can and do gap up beyond reason or estimation. Premium expansion in response to these moves can be unpredictable [A bad thing when you're short premium]. Any strategy involving selling puts or calls should IMO, be preceded by calculation of maximum adverse move impact..and adjustment of position size or use of spreads to limit risk.
I think the CBOE offers info on basic option strategies to provide overview..for more in depth treatment, Larry McMillan has authored some of the most highly regarded books on option strategies.
I don't do options for many of the reasons listed above..prior exploration lead to those observations.
BTW: Since many on this board consider the subject of shorting high-fliers..and the exploration of strategies for doing so, to be outside the realm of value investing, should we consider moving further discussion to John G's Shorting stocks: High fliers forum:
Subject 15251
Most of the folks that post there have primarily fundamental, research-driven orientation.
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