Hi Eugene,
the problem with the DOW vs Nasdaq is that techs are the ONLY game in town right now, regarding:
** earnings growrh
** sales growth
The DOW is flat-out tired, with some exceptions like GE, in the earnings growth game...
Also, the TECHS were in a BEAR market (short ones) twice in 2 years
once in October 1997 (remember that one), and just last fall ...
That is why this rally is sustainable, as aquisitions, sales growth and especially profit growth, which is hard to come by at this time, are present almost only in the Nasdaq , and to some extent, the S&P 500 (Top 100).
BTW, my readings of the sectors for 1999...
1- Financials, OK, although weak with overseas markets
2- Health Care, good in all cases, as R&D pumps out winners and is defensive anyway.
3- Consumers, so-so, as coca-cola, gillette etc weaken and/or growth slows down
4- resources -- yechhh
5- technology ---> Boom, then bust then Boom again, but definively positive for the year. (probably the only big winner, for reasons stated above)
All IMO, of course
Jean |
