>>it will take a structural
economic event to lead to a crash or a significant decline.<<
We already have structural problems. I think the drop comes for no apparent reason -- the excesses are already there. Why do people keep putting money in at this level? -- one word -- confidence! They don't believe that there is much of a risk of loss of capital.
It will change and quickly for some reason -- who knows why? but what is important is that everyone who has those huge paper gains can't take anywhere near those type gains out of the market. It will be demonstrated what a pure fantasy it is when more than a few percent of the investing populace wants out.
mike, speaks for the masses. Some have had caution and seen others make large year over year gains ... they are capitulating one by one as what seem like very important events, prez, Brazil, Asia, declining earnings, large increases in layoffs, trade and current account deficits, loss of markets, etc flash across the screen producing no discernible lasting shock to the price of stocks.
Heck look at MU -- it's been said a hundered times, but the stock is approaching levels that it did when it was actually earning some money and people just had to have shares and the fundementals are much, much worse ... mass psychology is difficult to understand, but these things hae a way of resolving themselves.
What kind of structural economic trigger are you looking for? |
