Blair, agreeing with you but guessing your numbers for DIS in '99 may be lower than it will do. Any Earnings will make DIS The Internet Stock For The Internet Generation look like a Solid Champ at $40 a share next to YHOO, AMZN, etc.- beating them out by a mile in brand name recognition, solidity, and longtime history of shareholder return.
Might I make prediction: DIS, T, & possibly AOL will be the dip-your-toe Internet Stocks of 1999. If AOL ever starts giving a dividend then Definetly AOL will be a core in the i-net 101 sector. So many won't touch a stock that doesn't pay dividend and earnings are minus:
not bad advice for other sectors but fundamentals for internet stock evaluation are so different. It took me awhile getting comfortable with that; it was exploring new ground once the "new rules" sunk in.
It remains to be seen whether the Analysts (who work for the banks and brokers, of course) will think it's wise to introduce their followers to these new fundamentals so soon. Really thinking the children's portfolio gift tradition of DIS will play a key role in the perception of it this year. Remember, 1998 kid's IRA's can be opened til tax filing day. Are the brokers going to suddenly start telling the Grandparents that DIS is now a risk and unsuitable for the kids because it's Internet? I doubt it. I think the brokers will be telling The Grandparents that DIS is now an internet, these kids are The Internet Generation, and DIS is a safe way to get 'em started.
Broker may also point at DIS lookin' good in how many Mutual Funds.
And I think the brokers will be saying that, because it's the truth.
I agree with you that earnings will be low this quarter, have been low, for numerous reasons. But if this affects the market perception of DIS as a good stable stock to Buy Low now, I'd be surprised. I see DIS, T, and AOL As Primed For The Intro. (I hold all 3 Co.'s and so am understandably bullish - have also studied this and I'm not the first to say this very thing).
If spring earnings announce blows the whisper numbers away, It's Traditional. A hunch Mickey's poised for a transformation. Some Big Volume Buys with no share price change to speak of, is something I watch for and I have seen with DIS- for awhile & lately. DIS has many shares out there, but these Big Buys floated by like Whales not making even a ripple, for months - makes my ears perk up if you know what I mean. Well, The Glass Is Half Full Anyway You Look At It With Disney, hope I'm right about How Soon, Don't You?
Best of Luck To All,
Joana
ps - Blair, I still have a chambered nautilus nightlight from the Tiki Room giftshop so many years ago. Wondering if a chandelier could be so sturdy a beauty as this.
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