Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (749)	1/19/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (1) of 3543

KeepItSimple - You put the case well. Pumping Social Security funds into the market is a recipe for prolonging the bubble (though the preannouncement was barely able to have an effect on the market today, with all the other bad news.) I actually think it would be kind of cool if they manage to pull it off - apparently it's been Greenspan's career ambition to stave off the Kondratieff cycle which should be taking us into a prolonged bear market just about now. I don't think it's a given he'll be able to pull it off though. Imagine - it's not hard - Brazil defaulting, the Japanese pulling out of US treasuries, the euro gaining strength as a reserve currency. This means pressure on the dollar, and interest rates may have to go up to defend it. The effect of the SS money needn't be another rise; we could simply be trading sideways for months, with high volatility. I actually expect Greenspan to say the markets are overvalued. He can do so safely after the SocSec announcement; the net effect might be close to zero, or a slight negative. Anyway, I'm not giving up my shorts! But I don't short the broad market of course; that hasn't been a good idea in months or even years! Kailash

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