Funny, I took a position in MTC for the same reasons....scratch that idea. Unfortunately, it isn't just the Searle portion of MTC, albeit the heart medication, the resurrection (with high impact title) of the Univ of Penn Study, and the less than perfect labelling for Celebrex didn't help. Life science companies will probably be plagued by a minority of vocal opponents to life science technology, whether it be "dastardly" genetic manipulation, "terminator" agro products, or Roundup friendly products and let's not forget the cows with infected tits.
Whether the billed merger with AHP was good or bad doesn't matter much in the very near term. They had both convinced the street that the merger was great and then it fell apart. Not good.
There has been a remarkable amount of bad news directed at Monsanto. Celebrex was approved and availble now yet the financial media reports this is all good news for Pfeizer and even Merck but bad news for Monsanto...puzzling. Particularly when the health science media reports the FDA approval with much anticipation.
They are also loaded with debt, perhaps not much more than their peer group average and continue on an acquisition binge which is nearly always looked at as dilutive of share value.
If one looks at the chart (TA perspective), it's abysmal. It's so bad, down trend, bad MACD, down stochastics....It's unusual for me to look at a chart and not find anything good, but I can't find anything positive at all. Well mabye it's so bad..things have to get better. (sigh)
Thursday earnings are reported. I'm not as much interested in the numbers as I am the forward looking statements. Unfortunately, I'll be on travel and not sure whether I'll be able to listen in...if they allow us lowly individual investors to listen (sarcasm intended). Unless they come out with some strong forward looking statements expect the stock to continue in it's current direction. One could ride it through, possibilities of an acquisition aren't inconceivable or particularly stellar news, such as huge Celebrex sales and/or a Canadian turn about on the hormones are possibilities, though I wouldn't bet on it.
I certainly would not average down under the current environment. You might even be better off taking the money and putting it into MSFT or INTC and continue to watch MTC for a turn around.
Best Regards,
Jim |
