How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 472.22

-1.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Sonki who wrote (14718)	1/19/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (4) of 74651

Sonki, Greg Moeffi said this 4Q was a y2k spend bubble. He said 3Q will be down to 63c with only 17% revenues growth. Sequentially down revenues and EPS. For FY99 (june), that is about. .56, .71, .63, .64 => 2.54. With 60 forward PE, the stock should be 2.54 x 60 => 152. MSFT bought about 2.7M shares at $100 per share cost. Wonder why they didn't buy more. Most possibly, they also didn't expect this 4Q bubble. Evaluating myself: (1) I was right on no split (2) I was too conservative with revenues and EPS (3) I was too conservative with converting to cash (may be) (4) I was right about 3Q and 4Q. I did OK but no cigars to myself. because I didn't expect this "bubble." I listened to the conference call. Here is what Greg Moeffi said about 3Q and 4Q: 3Q revenues growth will be in "teens" or 16% growth to 4.68B 3Q EPS will be about 25% growth to 63c. 4Q EPS will be about 64c. Can't tell tomorrow action. Noting that market keeps looking forward, I am not sure if it is impressed with 17% revenues growth for 3Q and 25% EPS growth in coming Q. I can never go by after market price. It may not mean all that much. There are many time when after market would be higher and the stock open 15% lower. So can't tell.

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