"Frank, on your original question - the big ISPs I have talked to are
all trialling the Juniper box,the Lucent box and a variety of other
alternatives. ISPs desparately need something faster than the GSR12000, and if somebody else can provide it, they will buy it.
Most would also welcome a credible second source and all would like
lower prices. I don't think Cisco would lose more than 5-10% market
share, but lower prices could hurt alot."
Mr. Fun,
I would agree that you have a good insight to what happening in the
market place. In the three companies, LU/ASND, NT, and Juniper in your
previous post for providing high end router for IP core, I would think
Juniper' M40 is mostly probable to provide viable second source as an
alternative to CSCO GSR12000. Since LU and NT are Juniper investors,
they may have distribution right for M40.
As far as price goes, the CSCO price is holding up pretty well and the
same as M40. None of lower price has happened yet. My guess is the
price erosion may not happen until third guy shows up. So far there
is no third guy yet. Until that happens, I would worry about my CSCO
holdings. What would you think?
Cheers!
Mike |
