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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR)

CCUR 2,500

0.0%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Larry Kagan who wrote (6564)	1/20/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Goodboy	Read Replies (1) of 21143

There is a lot going on right now in telco land as to the DSL technologies. The problem is and has been a lack of standards for the industry. This would allow more companies to design hardware and software that would work on any telco backbone. This is still not the case. There are many innovative "last mile" solutions in the pipe right now (forgive the pun) and I believe some of them will be successful. In the near term (next two years) I expect the telcos will have some success in broadband internet access via high speed modem. I think they will fall far short in terms of video delivery and replacement of cable broadband video offerings. In addition, the cable companies such as Time Warner and Comcast own much of the content from movies to cable networks. I doubt they will be accomodating to any new multichannel providers. It will be interesting to see how the telcos respond in the future to the "bundling" of services concept. They are in trouble in this area. When a telecommunications or video provider runs into competitive trouble, you can bet your ass they will cry to Congress and petition the FCC (Witness Echostar, small broadcasters, AOL). When competitive innovation creates Jurassic Park out of current business models, the natural reaction is to seek goverment regulation for protection. The MSO's don't have a lot of friends on the hill, but they do have a powerful lobby. Watch the Oregon case closely. If Cable must open its platform to other ISP's, Congress will have reneged on their promise and incentives of the 1996 Telecom Act. I think it is very important to understand how regulation, poitics, legal matters and competition will play into which and how certain technologies and services are delivered. It is one of the reasons that I am very confident in the current VOD model that the MSO's have endorsed.

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