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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)

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To: JDN who wrote (26839)	1/20/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Judge	Read Replies (2) of 31646

Shall we submit the first 2 sentences of the last paragraph as a joint thread entry to y2kduh.com? "Will Byron Wien's Bold Predictions Bear Fruit? By John Dorfman (John Dorfman is a Boston-based money manager with Dreman Value Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. The opinions expressed are his own and don't represent those of Bloomberg LP or Bloomberg News, or necessarily those of his firm. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.) Only unexpected news moves stocks. That's why I love the list of potential surprises published at the beginning of each year by Byron Wien, U.S. market strategist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. It's not that Wien can consistently predict the future. No one can. But the way he thinks is the way more investors ought to think -- in terms of probabilities. His list of possible surprises contains events ''to which the average portfolio manager would assign only a one-third probability'' but which Wien thinks have a probability of ''better than 50 percent.'' His first predicted surprise for 1999 is a whopper. ''After escaping a brief Senate trial with a censure, Bill Clinton becomes increasingly isolated and despondent over his tarnished legacy in American history. He unexpectedly resigns and describes his decision as the only act of personal dignity remaining for him.'' Personally, I can't imagine Bill Clinton resigning. Doggedness is one of his leading traits. On and On Wien also says investors shouldn't be surprised when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rises more than 20 percent in the first half of the year. Whew! That seems to me to be asking for a heck of a lot when the average S&P 500 company already trades at 32 times earnings. The Morgan Stanley strategist expects that earnings will rise about 10 percent in 1999, but even if they do (which I don't expect), stocks would still be pricey. Another bold ''prediction'' from Wien: ''The year 2000 meltdown turns out to be a hoax. There are few earnings hits, every plane flies and automatic teller machines deliver cash on New Year's Day.'' I have to wonder about this one, too. I guess I'm too strong a believer in Murphy's Law to expect everything to go smoothly when the clock chimes 2000. " The rest of the article is at bloomberg.com. Sigh... Regards, Cathleen

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