Dick, I have the DW data going back to 2/17/98 on a printed out spreadsheet which I have spread out on my wall to view it total. Along with the other DW data it is interesting to view how the sectors revolve. Tom, is right on in buying in the over sold areas. However, I also track the IBD data, ie R/S, ACCUM, EPS, SALES+PROFITS MARGINS+ROE, SPONSORSHIP AND INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY INDUSTRY PRICES INDUSTRIAL GROUPS on AMAT, CA, IFMX and Zolt.
IMO, it takes all this data to get an accurate view of a stock. With AMAT the R/S of the IBD was the only indication that the mutual funds was holding up the stock since it should, according to the EPS, have dropped into the teens rather than the DW low of $22. Tom's vertical method of calculation it was gave me a original projection of $64.
Dick, the hardest item for me to to figure the tops. My best method of calculation for AMAT is to use the ABSOLUTE highs since 1990 and then calculating the average and hi and low standard deviations. Using this method I get AMAT hitting a standard deviation high of $101.50.
Have you found any other methods of calculating the highs except the recalculation of new DW formations as a stock moves up. Your information is appreciated.
Just my opinions.
Thanks.
Paul |
