I'm still a long-term bull on CA, but I believe the street is very confused about the uncertainty posed by the question of how Y2K will impact license revenues in 1999; the two opposing camps will duke it out over the next three quarters and I don't want to pull a Switzerland, get caught in the middle, and have little to show at the end of the war. Unfortunately, I don't even think a good Q1, or even H1, will satisfy enough of the doubting Thomas' to enable the larger cap software players to command a steady upward price pattern this year; e.g., Even positive guidance from CPWR was met with two downgrades today. This is all looking a bit bearish and I say, why fight the tape?
So....I think it prudent to minimize my exposure here and focus on money-making sectors attracting new money (medical, pharma, biotech, telecom, etc.)
I also think we're heading straight for another correction and it'll be fun to have extra cash on hand to buy some leadership on sale.
BV |
