Wednesday moves/Thursday thoughts:
Well the market just looks tired to me right now. YHOO had been in negative territory most of the day as I checked it (as a barometer), and then in the last hour or so really started dumping. AMZN got killed, etc. When the leaders of the frothy sector show such weakness its a bad sign. YHOO has serious support right below $300 so any drop below $285 or so ($295 is 20 day support!) to me would indicate serious problems. Right now it seems like people are just trying to squeeze the magic juice out of the 2nd/3rd tier internet stocks... its working sometimes (like DCLK & BVSN for part of today) but all in all, it seems to be weakening. (and getting more dangerous) Perhaps even internet "investors" cannot justify these values for the short term.
As I have said in posts before, the overall weakness and breadth of the market is negative. DELLs, MSFTs (until today), other leaders are relatively weak in relation to the market. The medical sector is pathetic considering a rash of splits coming in 2/99. Not healthy.
NYSE down or slighly up everyday, yet NASDAQ steaming along most days... diveregence.... that is bad. Not healthy.
Leaders of the frothy sector (YHOOs, EBAYs, AMZNs) weak.. not healthy.
No fear on most message boards.... not healthy.
Trying to time the market is a b****, usually fails, but for the very near term I'm decidely bearish. Either we will trade in a small range here (9100-9500) or start a short term down trend. Breaking 10,000 on NYSE is going to take a lot of balls, and right now the market seems too weak to take on the challenge. Today there was neutral to positive comments from our friend Greenspan, market did well midday then returned it all. Not good.
That said, sold out of RNWK today at 59 (bought 61.75, sold 59) Like the stock, don't like the sector short term or market.
I did keep all my ABOV... yes I could buy it at $23 in a few days probably ....but $27 or $23... won't matter when it hits $50 sometime in the next 3 months.
Will start looking at YHOO or LCOS call options again maybe in a week, or if I see YHOO dump to the low-mid $200s.
So for now, ABOV and the BRCM options go under the pillow, along with that JENE stock (INSGY). Rest goes to cash, time to be patient and not let all the money made in first 2 weeks of January dissapear when/if stocks fall.
Mark |
