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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies

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To: helkel who wrote (28090)	1/21/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (1) of 36349

helkel,I don't think PAIR has a snowball's chance of hitting .12 - .13 for the Dec. '98 Q (to reported after the bell on the 27th). All of the recent analysts reports are pegging the number @ .07. The earnings warning shortfall that came in early Dec. said something to the effect of "substantially below estimates". At the time, the forecast was for something like .15-.16. .12 -.13 doesn't qualify as a substantial miss! The analysts (Volpe, Cowen, Warburg and others) must IMO be receiving company guidance. I just noticed that even the "whisper number" is now @ .07 as well. earningswhispers.com Lastly, I think that while bad news is entirely expected the new CEO will in fact want to get it all on the table now. Perhaps PAIR even held back shipments late in the quarter that could have gone either way. (Q4 '98 or Q1 '99). It will serve as a spring board for stronger upside surprises and comparisons going forward. Pascoe will look like a hero! I think in the case of PAIR the number itself is not going to be nearly as relevant as will any forward looking statements re: mid -long term growth opportunities with ADSL, Avidia, G.Lite, etc in general, and specific contractual engagements with the likes of Sprint and SBC. (Unless of course they miss even .07 in which case all bets are off). Note, Zack's has now come in line with First Call 's estimates (was .11 until very recently). We're all synched @ .07. This is a positive development as it leaves little room for one to construe the actual as a "miss". Larry

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