Well now the ''Story'' seems to be changing...surprise, surprise !
biz.yahoo.com
<<Big cutbacks in drilling and still-large numbers of shut-in wells among Canadian producers stung by depressed benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude prices have led to the tight supplies, as did a draw on Canadian light and heavy blends during a major U.S. pipeline outage early this year.>>
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<< U.S. Crude Supply Fell 2.2 Mln Barrels to 321.9 Mln, Contrary to Forecasts >>
''CONTRARY TO FORECASTS'' !!!!!! - I love those words !!! Those words make us lots of money !!!
<<Washington, Jan. 20 (Bloomberg Energy) -- U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.164 million barrels to 321.9 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 15, the American Petroleum Institute said in its latest weekly report.
The latest API figures show U.S. crude oil inventories are 3.80 million barrels up compared with the same period a year ago.>>
We are ONLY up 3.80 million barrels compared to last year ! - we just dropped 2.164 Million barrels last week ! - in a damn week or two, we could be at, or below last years supply levels and going lower each week !
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<<Weekly imports of crude oil to the U.S. increased by 0.1 million
barrels a day to 8.2 million b/d. Last year the U.S. imported 9.2 million b/d of foreign crude.>>
*** Importing 10% / 1 million less barrels of crude from last year. Factor in the catastrophic loss of all the shut ins and stripper wells domestically and the supply/demand equation is NOT as dreary as everyone is forecasting.
More important than the ''statistics'' is the ''trend.'' The trend is changing, E&P cutbacks, lowered Cap Ex spending and all the ramifications of the old saying; ''the cure for low Oil prices, are low Oil prices'' - are starting to show up in the statistics.
We are now at such a small amount of excess supply on a historic basis; that if the ''numbers'' are wrong - as they are alleged to be... ie: the Congressional investigation into the phantom 300 Million barrels of missing oil and the legitimacy of the IEA/API numbers etc. Then any ''slight'' upside surprise in Global (especially Asian) demand; will create a whipsaw reaction in the ''real-world'' crude pricing dynamics ! We are literally watching before our eyes; the story unfold about the allegations that the price of crude oil globally has been artificially depressed by traders to a degree far surpassing the relationship of the actual supply demand numbers. Also, the historic norms in terms of actual ''days of use'' in storage are being ignored, because they also prove the illegitamacy of the degree of the fluctuation in crude prices in relation to the degree of actual supply levels.
This story is gradually unfolding. History is a stern teacher; everyone is ignoring her lessons from the past. Just when we write off the power of historic cycles in commodity pricing, we become destined to be taught another powerfull lesson by history.
It's now classtime and ''history'' is about to teach us another lesson here... This IS a historic opportunity here folks; everyone is responsible for picking their own entry point price-wise and the risk vs. reward factors are certainly related to the changing fundamentals; but the main factor is - you ''gotta be in'' on this one... and it is going to payoff BIG, if one beats the crowd to the party here in the Oilpatch !
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