You over here? Hey, I don't follow this thread although I own the stock. What's the consensus on the qtr, good or bad? Buy or sell?
Ah, another zealot..... well, if I give you my opinion, I am liable to get flamed to death by your cousins, the Lunatics of planet Lucent....
But so what, I do not care, go ahead, you nuts, make my day and get the flame throwing keyboards out...
Here is my take: (since you asked)....
1. Lucent is a great company, it has a great future, both in the US and abroad. Lots of patents, good technology, and so far it seems that they have great management.
2. The stock.... (which imo, in many aspects they can behave independently from what the company does or does not do), yes that is where TA can, (read can as in sometimes it is accurate, and sometimes not), give you specific entry and exit points in the short to medium term. That means anything from a week to six months).
3. Personally, I am not married to either fundamental analysis, or T/A strictly. I use a combination of, (to give you a general idea), 1/3 FA; 1/3 T/A; and 1/3 market psychology. (that includes all the nuts out there <g>). Now, that is a general approach. T/A does give me an anchor of entry and exit points. (I call it Voodoo).
4. In the case of Lucent, (because I happen to believe that long term is going to do well), I tend to "hold the shares", however, what I do when it gets frothy, IMO and as of recent, I sell premium, (i.e. I sell calls), the price level depend of my entry cost, then I start going for the "spreads", (always net credits). Which in essence I am selling "time". (Somewhere I read that time has value measured in money <g>).
Doing the above, I limit my potential gain, but in essence I assure that if they call me away, there is a "locked in" profit, or, if the price drops below the strike I targeted, then the premium is mine, he, he, he.... and I still own the shares, (bigger HE, HE, HE, HE).
Worst case, I get called away, (at a profit), and if so.... I looked at the scenario, and if appropriate, I start all over again....
Another possible scenario, (however, it assumes an ever increasing price in LU, [or fill in the gap for your favorite stock], and I am not entirely sure of this, I am still studying this part), there is a tax benefit, as you never are recognizing a gain, nor selling the underlying.... meanwhile, as you are going for the spread, (remember, always a net credit), you are creating losses, by each individual transaction. Granted, every time you receive the premium, you are reducing your basis of the underlying, in this case LU.... so when you finally sell Lucent, the gain will be greater.... but, again, you are delaying such event. (remember that silly concept that time has value measured in money ?). All of this, I do "covered call selling" I never would do a "naked call selling"... too much risk, it could literary "clean you out".
I may be mistaken in the above... (I hope not).
As for your question.... sorry I do not give recommendations, I am not qualified to do so.... (I have no PHD's <g>).
And as for the specifics of the event, i.e. quarter, acquisition, whatever... well I tend to believe that the ANALysts, always buy the rumor... and then sell, (the day before, [to guess who ?]) the news.... So that does not help you.
Bottom line ? Never marry.... a stock, that is, (or anything for that matter <g>). Just make money, it's been said many times before, buy low sell high, visceversa if you are shorting.
But hey, what the hell do I know! Remember I am evil, not a Republican, (nor a Democrat), and worse, I have my own religion, based on greed (but not too much, I try to sell before it bites me), and when it comes to the stock market, I run for the exits at the first time I perceive the risk became unreasonable.....
Remember what it has been said before:
"It takes courage to be a pig."
-- Stanley Druckenmiller
Chief Trader for George Soros
And for the zealots out there.....
"I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters. [Keyboards].
- Solomon Short
[my addition]
_________________________________
** OT **
Re: Clinton..... You know what I think.... Remember I am no Clinton supporter, however in light of recent events..... I am laughing even harder now, I can not believe how the Hamas wing of the Republican party... they are handing in a silver platter the power to the Demos... I am shaking my head in disbelief....
But like I say, what the hell do I know.... I am just enjoying the show, from the gallery, laughing my head off.....
Here, take a look at the Latin American version of politics:
Message 7395527
He, he, he......
Oh and as for "Dorito".... be careful who you speak to... gringo <g>
mexconnect.com
No charge for the history lesson... <g> |
