It looks as though there is a lack of understanding regarding Primestar and TSATA's relationship and structure. TSATA only owns 37% of Primestar. I think better calculations are as follows:
$500,000,000 cash for assets 2,300,000 subs times $800/sub to be paid as they convert if they convert. Assuming all convert = $1,840,000,000
Total price for assets = $1.8 + .5 = $2,300,000,000 less approx $1,700,000,000 in debt = $600,000,000
Reports are that Primestar would sell its assets to DTV, so TSATA would remain in existence and only get 37% of $600 million or $222 million divided by 60 million shares = $3.7 at the most.
You also figure that DTV doesn't pay for subscribers unless they convert or until they convert, so look for actual numbers to be maybe 1.5 million subscribers at $800 or $1.2 Billion plus $500 million in assets = $1.7 billion in cash less debt = 0.
So, there may be no value in TSATA or Primestar unless you are a bondholder, and then maybe you will get your money back.
$2/share may be generous for TSATA. Hope this helps in an explanantion why people may not be buying. People looking for $8-$10/share may end up with nothing. Primestar is not worth over $3 billion which translates down to $8-$10/share. |