Klaus, The bookings component of SEMI's BTB-Number has been rising quite steady over the last months. But December is often seasonally strong, followed by a relatively weak first quarter.
Even, though December normally is strong (1.10 aver) the BTB # get stronger from the middle of year (Jly-Aug) on an average The strongest months are January (1.15 aver), Feb. (1.17 aver), Mar. (1.08), and
Apr. (1.04). Additionally, if you look at Gottfried's chart of semi equip orders & shipments 2/96-11/98 you will note that orders and shipments equilibrium was reached in December '96 and from that point orders exceeded the shipments until Oct. '97 with both continually rising until that point.
It is also interesting to note that it was in Aug. '97 that AMAT reached its top of $108 which incidentally appears to be the month that AMAT normally reaches its high when compared with past years. Then, again AMAT hit $104 the first of Oct. '97 before beginning its down cycle ultimately hitting $22 after split ($44 presplit). Therefore, those investors who bought AMAT up to $44 (presplit) in 1996 were even or made money in the down cycle. But, investors made tremendous money as the stock ran to new highs-looks like we are repeating the process, IMO.
Gottfried, will probably be updating his charts ASAP.
Thanks, Gottfried.
Just my opinions.
Paul
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