Leading Edge DRAM Capacity Tightness ...
A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 7 a.m. EST/4 a.m., PST, 1/21/99
DRAM prices are firming,
prompting market turnaround
PHOENIX -- After three very lean years, the closely watched DRAM market has begun to turn around. That is the opinion of Semico Research Corp., a market research company here.
Semico predicted last August that average selling prices of DRAMs would stabilize, and that has happened. Semico believes that ASPs will continue to rise, leading to a turnaround in the market (see story in the Jan. 15 publication of SBN).
The DRAM market has split into two segments, said the market researcher. One is DRAMs sold into the PC market. DRAMs in this segment are going to require fabs that are capavle of 0.22-micron feature sizes or better. Semico believes that there is a shortage of capacity in these fabs that will get worse as 1999 progresses. DRAM manufacturers have not invested in these advanced fabs since 1995.
DRAM manufacturers are justifiably very cautious about the introduction of a new type of DRAM, Direct Rambus DRAM. They are unlikely to significantly increase capacity until the direct access technology battle has been decided. A shortage of capacity is going to lead to increased ASPs.
The second DRAM market segment consists of DRAMs sold into workstations and into the communication, consumer, transportation and industrial markets. These are older types and densities of DRAM. There is no shortage of capacity for these DRAM, Semico said, but ASPs will rise as DRAM manufacturers shift their emphasis to the much larger-volume PC market.
--Duker
Interesting to me ... someone actually looking beyond the general capacity situation ... to a more appropriate "leading edge versus trailing edge capacity ..." |
