Howard,
>>Big guys dumping little guys buying. Just wait for the margin calls tomorrow. And then the non-event of the split. And the disappointment of the fleeced.<<
You've got it backwards, papa bear :)....
Today's volume breakdown:
1) there were a total of 33,379 non-block trades (318 shares/trade)
2) with 37 block trades (13,935 shares/trade)
the average non-block trade size has been nearly 368 and the average block size has been about 33,000. The average shares/trade would be much higher than 318 and 13Th, if the big guys were unloading...sorry.
Looks to me like a bunch of panicked little guys selling, and momentum short sellers "helping them along" with their decisions.
The management has all but said 250-275 is a value that they feel is fair and that this figure was used for the decision to do a 2:1 vs something higher.
I had thought 275 or thereabouts would be the bottom, but 250 hit.
This is the low end of managements range....alot of sidelined money was sitting with a limit buy for 250-255...thus the pop from that low.
You bears are in a similar situation that the longs were in 1-2 weeks ago...
...do I take my money and run, or do I try to squeak out another 20-30 points...but hmnnnn....
1) AOL reporting next week
2) Potential for a big split run (think of all that money willing to buy at 125-135, but not 250-270...psychological thing)
3) very large increase in short interest (gonna have to cover sooner or later...wonder if it will be all at once like it usually is)
4) Excessive hype circulating the wires..."sell them now!", "Take your money off the table", "At least another 25% downside"
one point about number 4. When people start publishing predictions about potential "marginal" upside OR downside yet to come, my experience has been that the stock always goes the other way.
So,
what to do...what to do....
one last thing, as you prowl through the forest, be careful not to trip on any of those bear skeletons lying around...:)
|
