Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 220.66

+1.6%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Rob S. who wrote (35890)	1/21/1999 6:39:00 PM
From: Paul Merriwether	Read Replies (3) of 164684

<< Paul; give us your exact predictions so we can be informed. >> Rob I don't like predictions, or more to the point, I can't predict(and I contend that neither can anyone else). There's too many random elements and to predict day to day movements down to numbers is like watching a monkey throwing darts(now I am not trying to insult you). Its like saying that in a coin toss its going to be heads because the initial condition was T, the coin was tossed at an angle of 47.5" with a force of 2N with a wind velocity of such etc. etc. Its just too complicated. How can you know that Barton Biggs is going to blab in Tokyo or the text of his speech. Or there would be a rumor or a chinese deval. Or the effect on market of these announcements. You probably were not doing it, but these so called oracles come up with price predictions and have a way to get out of it by speaking in self-condradictory statements. I really hope that you didn't take offence(none was meant!). In the long term AMZn will be a single digit stock. Maybe even a penny stock. i.e. unless they change their business model completely. Not a revamp, but a complete flush down the toilet. The way they are going, eventually reality will catch up with them. However, it can take 5 years for all I know. What's a trader to do? Play small positions for the very long term(I would bet down), or play speculatively large but nimble positions for the short term.

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