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Strategies & Market Trends : Canadian Options

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To: Jan Johnstone who wrote ()1/30/1997 6:19:00 PM
From: william smith   of 1599
 
Research from Midland

Cameco (CCO @ $54.35) Target $100.00

Cameco is one of the largest producers, and the lowest-cost integrated producer, of uranium in
the Western World. The target price of $100.00 is based on our belief that firm consumption and
the ongoing reduction of consumer inventories will drive up the price of uranium to the previous
peak of US$40/lb in 1998. Even with our forecast 10% rise in mine production, there would be
insufficient new production coming onstream to cause the price to back off. (Finding, permitting
and bringing into production a new mine takes five to 10 years.) Moreover, uranium is fairly
price insensitive, as fuel costs amount to less than 5% of the operating costs of a nuclear-power
plant. If uranium reaches US$40/lb, we forecast that CCO could earn $7.10 per share in 1998.
Applying a 14 times earnings multiple to 1998 earnings yields a target price of $100.00 next year,
as the stock price typically peaks a year before the earnings.
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