I.N.Vestor, I agree that there may be a connection with Valence. However, if they were going with their own technology, there may be some patent and royalty considerations. Regardless, the news release states that they are "aiming at a monthly output of 300,000 units.
The thickness was stated as 3.6 mm which is roughly 4 Valence bi-cells. One of Valence's high speed assembly machines is capable of 240 bi cells per minute or 80 of these 3.6 mm batteries per minute. Running non-stop it would amount to 115,000 per day. realistically, lets say 100,000 per day maximum.
Matsushita's intended 300,000 per month seems equivalent to what Valence might have done last year with their small pilot line in Henderson. A year later, just one of Valence's high speed lines should be able to turn out Matsushita's "intended" monthly output in just 3 or 4 days, leaving another 26 or so days per month to make other products that were higher watt-hour and therefore more profitable.
I remember doing a similar comparison with T&B or one of those with a small monthly output. Perhaps Sanyo has a new line of calculators that Matsushita supplies components for. Its good to see that the Li-polymer is becoming accepted for more applications. I have a feeling that such applications are growing at a tremendous rate and anyone that can turn out some workable batteries can sell them.
A company such as Valence that can turn out huge quantities of higher-performance batteries should have a very bright future, especially if competition can sell batteries for $6 per watt hour and we have been figuring Valence's first 3 lines can produce over 250 million watt hours per year and six production lines (likely Valence "intended" capacity by yearend when Matshushita's "intended" capacity should be proven) over 500 mln watt hours per year.
Lev indicated last August that he expected $2.50 per watt hour for laptop batteries. 500 mln wh x $2 seems ample for six production lines.
If we use Mitsubishi's stated 1300 yen/$113 per yen for a 1.85 watt hour battery, they would sell them for $6.25 per watt hour. At Mitsubishi's prices, Valence's six line (maximum)annual capacity would be worth $3,125,000,000 per year or about $105 per share in revenue! At 33% it would amount to about $34 profit per share and a 25 PE would indicate an $875 share price, just from six Valence production lines!
Thanks Matshita for shedding some light on Valence's future!
|
