I personally expect a lot of shakeout in the industry. There are many permutations and combinations that are currently possible.
I personally eliminate the following for the next 6 months:
1. Cisco will not buy either Ascend, Fore, 3Com or Bay.
2. IBM will not buy anyone until they figure out what happens in their groupware fight with Netscape and Microsoft.
That leaves Xylan, Shiva, Cascade, GDC, Newbridge, Madge, Nortel, Gandalf and Cabletron.
My personal guess is that the only company that Cascade will do best to merge with is either Ascend or Shiva.
Ascend is a great company and the #3 in my opinion. They have great momentum currently.
Fore will also be a great partner to Cascade. Most of their products are different.
As more networking vendors are looking to consolidate, I expect more tighter integration and partnerships.
The need for corporate customers to have a one-stop-shop is obvious. Cisco currently is touting the Total-Cost-of-Ownership with a single vendor as a major plus.
Looking at the current scenario, only Cisco, Ascend, Fore and 3Com look like companies that can buy someone out.
Newbridge looks like a great partner for 3Com, although they are geographically very far apart.
Just my 2 cents. |
