From Utah Male ... (AOL FRODE ?)
I was asked if I had any idea's about the revenue and earning potential of Liquivent, Oxygent and FloGel.
Here are the numbers that I have come up with. Keep in mind, each of these products (aside from Imagent)
are lacking marketing partners. The prices charged and the royalties garnered will be predicated upon the
agreements.
With that said...here I go.
I was forced to refer back to research reports written in 1996. It seems to me, we are in the very same
situation as then, as far as the time line for product being on the market. Different from then is that we have a
financing issue and no J&J or Hoescht.
Brean Murray, Ladenberg, Thalman & co., Lehman Brothers, Oppenheimer and Cowen and company all
had reports out in 1996.
I am using 50,000,000 shares and a tax rate of 40%. All the previously mentioned analysts had gross margins
of 90%. I used 80%.
Liquivent: Potential market size ranges from 850,000 to 150,000. Depending upon how broad the FDA
approval is. There is no competition in this area. The price per patient is estimated at $10,000 for an adult
and $3,000 for an infant. Based upon this and assuming the marketing agreement with their new partner is
similar in nature to Shearing AG's I estimate EPS of $15.36 on a 850,000 potential market size to $2.88 per
share for 150,000. That is on an after tax basis.
Oxygent: Pricing will be appx. $250 per dose. It is estimated that it will take two doses per patient. Potential
market size here ranges from 7,000,000 to 3,500,000 per year, purely on a domestic basis. I estimate EPS
on an after tax basis to range from $6.72 to $3.36.
Imagent revised: My previous post used 32,000,000 shares. We all know they are going to have to issue
more shares. So my revised numbers are assuming 50,000,000 shares. EPS is estimated at $1.12.
FloGel: My best guess at market size is 1,000,000 procedures per year. In a surgury it is estimated it will
require two viles of FloGel at $200-$300 per vile. Estimated EPS is $.77.
To summarize Using the lower estimated EPS;
Liquivent: $2.88
Oxygent: $3.36
Imagent: $1.12
Flogel: $0.77
Total EPS $8.13
The aforementioned analysts used a 30x PE for Alliance.
30x$8.13=$243.90.
Even if I am only half right is a great return. The big question is, how long will it take to get all these products
on the market?
I look forward to your responses.
sciam.com |
