Gottfried, If anyone wants to observe what impact that the orders, shipments and btb # has on price all they have to do is compare your charts. What is still amazing to me is why AMAt's price held up at $22 during the low btb, orders and shipments in August when compared with Aug. 1996. Big Bucks and others of us on the site were correct on our interpretation that the price should have gone lower, into the teens, but unless monitoring the R/S in the IBD, in Aug. 98, I would not have understood that the Mutual Funds were holding up AMAT's price at $22.
IMO, when we compare the order, shipments and btb beginning this up cycle, in August '98 with '96 we notice that the bottoms were reached in August, then continued to move upward with the orders and shipments reaching an equilibrium in dec'96 and close to an equilibrium this december. Then, in 1996 after the equilibrium of orders to shipment was reached and orders exceeded shipment the price of amat really took off. This cycle, as Tito has stated, AMAT is even moving up faster than it did in 1996. The brokerage houses and mutual funds must be continuing to place individuals in AMAT at a tremendous pace since they got in early The question, "How high will this price go?"
Gottfried, would you please, please:) update your AMAT Price chart which compares the past years amat prices. It shows us how the price cycles with previous years and how we are performing during this cycle..
IMO, another observation, is what Lester E. has reflected to us, paraphasing, "All I know is that every two years AMAT price runs up and splits with my shares splitting 2 for 1 and I double my money." Just compare AMAT's low price in August '98 with the low price in July/Aug. '97. Based on your AMAT price chart, Brian, and others who got into AMAT even at $108 in 1997 before the split are now going to make good money as AMAT continues its upward price movement.
Naturally, they would have done better if they would have gotten in at a lower price.
Just my opinions.
Again, Thanks Gottfried for a job well done. We appreciate it.
Paul |
