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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software
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To: Tokyo VD who wrote (390)1/22/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (1) of 600
 
>>I find it also peculiar how you picked the biggest cut (bigger than management's guidance) in the numbers to highlight your perspective

well management didn't get it right last quarter so i lost confidence in their official guidance. I don't think they end up doing $1.00 but how can anybody be confident in the estimates at this point.

>>So, telling us to short the stock until "estimates start trending the opposite direction" is the kiss of death for a short seller.

I am not saying to short the stock. I just don't think the stock is going up much over the near term. My point was that the stock probably just bounces around until they can provide evidence that $1.09 is the right number.

>>what's the risk at $25 a share?

10-15% unless they really hit a wall.

>>I don't want to bet against the industry leader when the smaller, less equipped Open Text has a $600 million market cap with half the revenues.

good point. i agree with you that these two are mispriced relative to each other. maybe Open Text is a short?

>>If management doesn't screw up the first quarter results, then the stock will trade off the '00 numbers. THAT IS $225mm in revenues and $1.50 EPS. This stock will be in the mid-$30s in six months.

I agree with you if $1.50 is the '00 number come April results. I like the document management market. They hit a speed bump and we will have to see how they respond from here.

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