rll <<1. There are now fewer reasons to believe that IOM can achieve the current consensus estimates for 1999.>>
One reason that IOM will not achieve estimates: Glore said the first quarter will be flat earnings wise - his reasons were 1) seasonality and 2) investment in and the introduction of a new product. Fifteen reasons say they will better estimates and increase sales in 99 over 98 (and you're thinking only of 97? - how much you wanna bet they sell about $640 million worth of product 4th qtr 99?). Those reasons are rather self-evident 1) 25 million zips in the pipe by the end of the qtr, 2) 35 million zips by the end of the year, 3) OEM inclusion is expanding - expanded from 6% to 7.5% sequentially, 4) Clik! already has support from some respectable names, namely Sharp, Compaq and Agfa, more to follow. 5) Handheld computers are increasing in popularity without suitable storage medium. Clik! will work well for them. 6) No clik! sales registered last year. 7) Continued cost reductions in SG&A and Sales yielding higher margins. 8) New product introductions. 9) Mamma Sambo gonna offer zip in every chil's stockin' next Crissmas - must we beat this?
<<2. Guiding analysts down to a flat 1Q99.>>
flat earnings is 700% better than 1Q98. They didn't say "flat sales" to 1Q98.
<<3. Revenues decreased by $46M over 8% of 4Q97. Even with 23 million drive base and 47% improvement in disk sales over 4Q97.>>
It's uptick time sambo. The more drives, the more disks, the more sales. They reached an inflexion point last Christmas in sales. Last Christmas zips were costing nearly 2X as much as they do now to both OEMs and retail. The lower the cost on zips the greater the number of sales. This is boring.
<<4. Drive sales growth decreasing year to year. Jaz drive sales actually decreased 7% over 4Q97.>>
You need to develop a "learning curve" mathematical formulation for product introduction, develop and revenue generation over time. The zip follows such a curve almost perfectly. Sales growth is increasing for the number of units sold; but the price decreased; so you're looking at revenue alone. Current revenue is put one part of the horrible pie. Depending on where you place the zip's intro on the learning curve, upward revenue is expected to "explode" - i.e., unit growth is not going down, but exponentiating upward. There was a "consolidation pattern" during 1998 which was to be expected. The next leg is up on a learning curve.
<<5. IMO, the functional organization change is too complex for IOM at this critical time. It is taking too long to implement and they are losing valuable assets. JG said that the organization should be in place in 2,3, or 4 months. That's simply too long.>>
This thread is too complex
<<6. Briscoe bought 200,000 shares last fall. Now he's decided to resign. There's no way to paint that any different. Yea, I heard JG state that he'll be a consultant for a year. It's not the same as being there every day and making on the spot decisions.>>
Ted is a good ol' buddy. He's wealthier than you or I cause he sold a ton of his IOM at the right time last time around. 200,000 shares is squat money for him now. I doubt he's having sleepless nights. He likes four baggers, not two. Ted wants retirement (talk to him) so he can watch his IOM account tick upward by daydrading like you.
<<7. Clik! is too late to market to get strong support with OEM's. Flash memory has come down considerably in price and is still decreasing as desnsity increases. Clik! may have a separate market of transferring data from flash unless flash memory becomes equivalent in price. Solid state memory has too many advantages over a moving disk for portable applications.>>
I'm too late staying here replying to this "short" pompom. Flash memory has come down considerably in price? Compared to what? Tell mom and pop to go out and buy a flash memory. Solid state memory has too many advantages - and that's why box makers still include moving hard drives, moving floppies, moving etc. There are just too many advantages for them NOT to include solid state!
I'm not trying to irritate you, I know how tough that feels since I irritate myself enough as it is. |
