Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

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Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (27860)	1/23/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (3) of 70976

<<How long did bookings take to recover in 1985?>> I don't know. The historical bookings data on the SEMI website does not go back that far. I'm not saying that bookings are guaranteed to recover lost ground within any specified period of time. I don't think it's necessary to know how fast the recovery will be, only that we are in a recovery. <<As I've been saying for months, this downturn is really the extension of 1997, not the successor.>> That may be true for the DRAM industry, but when equipment bookings double over a fourteen month period, as they did from Sept. 96 to Nov. 97, it's hard to think of that as a mere blip. <<1997 behavior is extremely unlikely to be a good model.>> I don't think it pays for either semiconductor equipment executives or their investors to get hung up on whether customers are ordering for the right reasons. The equipment companies have to take the orders when they can get them, and the investors have to take the profits when they can get them, without worrying about whether the industry is achieving some mythical nirvana model of sustained, steady growth.

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