Latest on the IPO.
>My own feelings are it will run up to a minimum of $20 sometime >during Monday.
You have got to be kidding.
People have been too tentative recently to buy until after
the earnings. I would not pay $19/share for this stock
until I knew that it was at least a 90% certainty.
Personally, I think that it may open at $17, but drop back to
the 15 1/2-16 1/2 range until after the earnings report.
An earnings report without NO mention or hint of the IPO announcement
will cause a gap back down to $12-14,
but should not drop much further,
as some traders will choose to buy into it for a possible
announcement on 2/9 under a perceived reduced risk psychology,
thereby the balancing out the selloff at some point during the day.
Here, this will be a test of patience for people
with "larger than comfortable" positions
and heavy margining, to see at what point they can no longer
stomach it.
As the stock finds bottom in the early part of the day,
many of the buyers will pause and buy mostly on the way up,
because they would not want to be caught under a "falling knife."
You would later see accelerated buying
(like on the day the other week,
when the stock fell to 12 and raced back up to 17 1/2
on market buy orders within an hour).
From that point, when the post-earnings jitters settle,
I would see gains back to $16-18 as it became closer to 2/9.
Now an earnings report that would hint the delay of IPO announcement
and it's adios. You will not be able to get out in time,
because the stock will open at $10, before the open on Tuesday,
and then DROP to as low as $8.
The selloff would, of course, be CATASTROPHIC and on heavy volume of
at least 10 million shares, and many of these speculators
would be left holding the bag, wishing that he or she SHOULD NOT
have bought that BMW Z3 (as one person recently bragged about buying
on this thread), until his or her shares were cashed in.
-Chris |
