vincenzo and all,
I'm new to this thread but have been watching NMGC very closely. I am considering establishing a position because, as I see it, this stock is a tremendous value in a generally overvalued market. Growth is outstanding and execution seems to be solid. I think, however, that beyond the short/intermediate term many people share the same concern I do regarding all graphics chip makers...namely, the rapid pace of change in this industry. Who is king today, definitely is not guaranteed to be king tomorrow. Does anyone remember TSENG?? At one time they had leading edge technology and their growth looked almost exactly like NMGC's does now. Wasn't CHPS the big player in notebooks just a few years ago?? Remember when SIII was all the rage?? Now we have TDFX, TDDDF, NVDA, and never underestimate ATI. Intel's entry into the market with their own technology and their purchase of CHPS also is a worry (real or perceived??) to many investors. In other words, the industry is very competitive with many respectable players and history has shown that it is hard to stay on top for a long period of time. Any one of these players could produce the next hot chip/chip family. I realize that NMGC does have some unique technology and is insulated somewhat by their focus on the mobile market. But competition will not remain complacent and many "desktop only" players may start looking seriously at the mobile market to expand their opportunities. These are the risks as I see them. Having said all that, I still believe this stock at current levels appears to be a great value. In fact, in our annual stock picking contest over on the PTEC thread, I tried to enter NMGC as one of my picks. Unfortunately, NGMC (for some inexplicable reason, perhaps because they only IPO'd a couple years ago) does not have an SI profile which made it ineligible for our contest. Here is the info I provided to the PTEC thread
exchange2000.com
Good luck to all,
FF |
