Neil: My last CPQ purchase was at $45 5/8ths
(I sold all my Crus for between $12 1/4 and $11 3/4 and my average cost was $8. However, I intend to buy back in for trading when the price settles at the bottom of the trading range. I think that will be about $9 1/2).
I am a little concerned that sentiment for CPQ is so strong. It prepares the ground for a "buy on the rumour sell on the news" scenario.
I have always thought that earnings would produce a price in a range from $48-52 if earnings are reasonably higher than expectations: the price range moves up if there is a blow-out which I would define as 0.44 EPS or more - in that case I think the range moves to $52-58 before consolidating around $53.
If the price is to be at the low-end of that projection, then we have not got much further to go.
Of course, an as yet unknown announcement about internet developments may or may not add a premium to the p/e and the price range.
There are not many new BUY recommendations available since the majority of the investment community already recommends CPQ. There is scope for upgrading of future earnings. One would expect that most of the analysts will want to wait until the Friday meeting with the company before upgrading on that day or sometime the following week.
A relatively new element may be mom and pop electronic day traders, especially those attuned to internet issues. They could turbo-charge the movements up and down. Since this variable is as yet unquantifiable, and since it would probably be postiive for the share price, who knows, maybe on a spike we could exceed $58 on an intraday basis.
The potential internet announcement creates an unpredictable variable.
It should be gripping, next week!
All in my arrogant opinion, of course! |
