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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 233.22+1.8%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (36238)1/23/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: Stefan  Read Replies (3) of 164684
 
Most of the bulls are using history as a predictor of future moves in the stock market.
Well, the run in US security markets resembles the run Japan had in the '80s. Remember the arrogance of the Japanese making statements "Americans are lazy", "they have to learn from the Japanese how to run their businesses" and so on.
We were humble and “laid off” at the time and the Japanese were riding a BULL that was never seen. In 1990 Nikkey hit high close to 40,000 where it is now, 14,154.

Here is the point to believe that the market is going only UP is silly. In a long run (40 years) it is a winner unless country goes out of business but in short periods like 10 years your paper value may be shaved of by as much as 80%.

As to the available cash there is a lot of it generated every day.
Let's look at AMZN, it added about $19 Billions to the market. Is this real cash or fantasy money? I tend to think is the second. Have you seen a stock certificate? It tells you right there what it is worth, par value of $0.05.

Market is an auction (no big discovery here).
As with every auction one day's gem may be a junk the next day.
Whatever you do, just don't gamble with your kids food money.

Good luck for all Stefan

Disclosure: I own AMZN puts.
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