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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: bobby beara who wrote (3917)1/24/1999 7:38:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (3) of 5676
 
BB,

Thanks for the link.
The cumulative breadth chart is most interesting.
It shows breadth topped in 10/97, (NYSE topped 4/98) and confirms my theory that breadth tends to top at the end of 3 of 3 of 3.

Cycle 1 from 7/32 to 5/37
Cycle 2 from 5/37 to 5/42
Cycle 3 From 5/42 to 11/68
Primary 1- 5/42 to 5/46 t= 4 years
Primary 2- 5/46 to 6/49 t = 3 years
Primary 3- 6/49 to 7/59 t=10 years
.... Intermediate 1- 6/49 to 9/51
.... Intermediate 2- 9/51 to 9/53
.... Intermediate 3- 9/53 to 8/56 (In 1956 the NYSE A/D line reaches the highest level since).
.... Intermediate 4- 8/56 to 12/57
.... Intermediate 5- 12/57 to 7/59
Primary 4- 8/59 to 9/60 t= 1 year
Primary 5- 9/60 to 11/68 t= 8 years

Cycle 4 - 11/68 to 9/74 (NYSE A/D line bottoms 9/74)

Cycle 5 - 9/74 to present.

Primary 1 - 9/74 to 11/80
Primary 2 - 11/80 to 7/82 (NYSE A/D line bottoms 7/82 all times low)
Primary 3 - 8/82 to 10/89
.....Intermediate 1 - 8/82 to 6/83
.... Intermediate 2- 6/83 to 6/84
.... Intermediate 3- 6/84 to 8/87
........... Minor 1- 6/84 to 7/85
........... Minor 2- 7/85 to 9/85
........... Minor 3- 9/85 to 7/86 (A/D line top)
........... Minor 4- 7/86 to 9/86
........... Minor 5- 9/86 to 8/87
.... Intermediate 4- 8/87 to 12/87
.... Intermediate 5- 12/87 to 10/89
Primary 4 - 10/89 to 10/90 (A/D line bottoms 10/90)
Primary 5 - 10/90 to present. t= 8 years and counting.
.... Intermediate 1- 10/90 to 1/94
.... Intermediate 2- 1/94 to 12/94 (A/D line bottom)
.... Intermediate 3- 12/94 to present
........... Minor 1- 12/94 to 2/96
........... Minor 2- 2/96 to 7/96
........... Minor 3- 7/96 to 7/98
.................Minute 1 - 7/24/96 to 2/18/97 (a clear count inside this one)
.................Minute 2 - 2/19/97 to 4/11/97
.................Minute 3 - 4/14/97 to 7/10/97
Cumulative breadth top on the chart you linked was reaced on Minute 3 of Minor 3 of Intermediate 3.

.................Minute 4 - 10/7/97 to 10/27/97
.................Minute 5 - 10/28/97 to 7/17/98 (extended)
.................Minuette 1 - 10/28/97 to 12/5/97
.................Minuette 2 - 12/5/97 to 1/12/98
.................Minuette 3 - 1/12/98 to 4/6/98 (NYSE A/D top)
.................Minuette 4 - 4/7/98 to 6/15/98
.................Minuette 5 - 6/16/98 to 7/17/98
........... Minor 4- 7/20/98 to 10/8/98
........... Minor 5- 10/8/98 to present (Jan 8th?).

so we're looking for Intermediate 4, a correction one degree larger then the 8-10/98 correction, and may I remind you that I count the '87 crash as Intermediate 4, too.

ATG
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