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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: nealm who wrote (7404)	1/24/1999 3:00:00 PM
From: gvander	Read Replies (3) of 27311

I think the Barron's article will ultimately help the U.S. pure plays. 1. It may attract strategic money to prevent losing another industry--to develop the technology properly takes a lot of capital. 2. The article provides a wake up call to domestic companies and gives managers a more accurate sense of reality. (they can then make better decisions and allocate capital more efficiently). 3. The article tends to initiate an advantageous perception pattern that has occasionally proved fatal for some Japanese competitors. In the past, Japanese companies overestimated their ability and underestimated their competitors. e.g. Compaq, Intel, Micron, Nokia. This results in a natural change in competitiveness--incentive decreases for leaders and increases for those who are now perceived to be the perma-followers. Do our companies' owners want to lose a battle that was completely foreseeable. NO! Large egos actually help the losers but hurt the leaders. 4. In the end accurate information only serves to accelerate the emergence of a leader. Better information leads to better decisions for all the industry participants. Leading companies already know the information that was presented in the article, however, information inconstancies were fostered between potential OEMs. This article will lead to a resolution of those inconstancies and allow for a U.S. lithium polymer battery leader to emerge. The article indicated that only one of the three public pure plays "is now producing plastic lithium ion batteries and that the fully automated facility can make many millions a year." This seems to resolve at least one piece of misinformation. I now think all three public companies could reasonably be moved up one slot in my original ranking which originally placed three Japanese companies in the top slot. Unless the current media infatuation with polymer exacerbates the over-investment within the industry, I think U.S. players may be able to turn the effects of this major mainstream article to their advantage. Follow up article link provided: techweb.com Direct link to the Barron's article: Message 7444390

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