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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST
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To: Bruce L who wrote (11737)1/24/1999 4:15:00 PM
From: Sector Investor  Read Replies (2) of 42804
 
Bruce, you just expressed what I have been thinking about for a while.

MRVC has NEVER reported a loss. Before Q3 they had never even reported a quarter-quarter drop in revenue or in pre-charges EPS.

Yet, as you say many accept it as a given. Like you I would have thought that they would have issued a statement by now, or one or more analyst reports would have come out reiterating or changing their estimates. None of this has happened. Aren't they OBLIGATED to pre-announce only if their quarter will be WORSE than current estimates? If estimates are for a loss, but MRVC will beat the estimates (less loss or positive earnings), then I don't think they have to say anything.

Officially we know very little:

1) Noam's words of Q4 revenue up 4-5% - but that statement was made on 10/29, less than 1 month into Q4. How reliable could that be when they were off on Q3 almost 2 months into the qtr?

2) Noam said at the annual meeting we can expect the next 3-6 months (which I interpretted as Q4 and Q1) to be "difficult" for MRVC and that his 1999 EPS estimates were $0.35-$0.40.

3) that Edgeblaster/EdgeGuardian is ramping slower than expected

4) Analyst projections of losses.

Unofficially we "know" that they are investing heavily in their infrastructure, that Fiber Driver is a plus for Q4, that Europe conditions seem improved, etc.

I guess all we can conclude is that they will not come in worse than current analyst estimates. How much better remains to be seen.

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