Danny, I can see you are not EE type. Never shift focus when we make
an argument, otherwise it will never end. The disagreement I have with
you is whether DMT is better than CAP. I say DMT is better. The cost
is a separate topic. Now, let us talk about the cost. I agree with you
CAP is cheaper now and available in quantities. However, DMT will be
available in half year or so from MOT or ADI. Therefore, I say this
rejection of CAP standard application is a good news for DMT. Since
other RBOC will not follow BA to massively depoly CAP without standard
issue settled down. This is a small win. But if it is rejected again
in July, it will be a big win. In any case, I do believe CAP will became
a co-standard as I said in other treads. This is because DMT camp will
not object CAP strongly next year when they get everyting ready. Also,
BA and some other RBOC will deploy CAP this year without question.
In short, cost difference will be vanished next year. DMT may even be cheaper
next year given more companies manufacture DMT chips.
Now, people in this forum care about which stock we should buy given this
CAP vs DMT battle?
First, I say this battle is not a good news for ADSL stocks overall
since investors may want to wait and see. They may more likely invest
money to cable modem since there is no such clouds there. That
is why I say it is a good thing for ZE or other cable modem companies.
Second, I still like Amati and AWARE better than WSTL even I own both
AMTX and WSTL. This is because Amati and AWARE are unique. Their
products are the best. They have the patents
and in-house expertise to improve their inventions. That is good in
the long run. As for WSTL, I can see there will be more and more
companies jump in to ADSL market. They are all going to lincense both
DMT and CAP. There is no doubt about this if you take a look at ISDN
market now. Now, let us say a year later, there are a dozen companies
like WSTL appear. Are you still think WSTL is the best buy then? I do
believe WSTL now a little ahead than those jump in later. But how long
they can keep this situation unchanged? Let's say ASND jumps in half
year later (very possible), should we buy WSTL or ASND? my 2 cents |
