Ron, My scientific wild assed guess on NASDAQ downside is 2250 in the next 2-4 weeks. I don't see a strong sustained move down because I still think we have some strong earnings coming from AOL (not a NASDAQ, I know) next week, and CSCO and DELL in following weeks. Not to mention MSFT splitting as a wildcard which I think will be played in the next 10 days. This is not to say that volatility will not be high. Indeed, I think the Internet stocks will (and should be) hammered, partly due to the fact that the lock up periods expire for many in the next few weeks (eg, EBAY shareholders can sell on Friday, I believe). If I were a venture capitalist with EBAY, I would sell, and sell fast into a market which had valued EBAY as richly as this one (18 IPO to almost 300 today). But even if the Internet stocks take a collective dive, I think AOL will hold up, and maybe even run up to earnings (and a split?) on Jan 27. And look back to those blowout numbers from INTC and MSFT -- look out above for DELL, with earnings Feb 16. And when you look at the NASDAQ, you are really looking at those stocks out of proportion. No one will be selling those stocks in quantity. I think Institutions still have cash they are looking to put into those stocks if they dip even a few points. BUT... I think the market may be headed for a dip/ breather in February. Maybe beginning even before DELL announces its numbers. Right now I have AOL Feb Calls, DELL Feb Calls, and MSFT Apr Calls. Unless we see a drastic move downward early next week, I am holding them and fully expect to sell for profits... AOL next week... MSFT in the next 2 weeks, maybe 4 weeks... DELL probably on Feb 16 with the earnings run up.
Here then, my Abbey Joseph Cohen imitation:
In February, the NASDAQ will fluctuate between 2214.5 and 2487.3, plus or minus 4.3 points.
Or, my Ralph Acamporaspam imitation:
In February, the NASDAQ (what is it at now - 2338?) will be roughly 2338 plus or minus about 700 points in either direction.
Wildcards:
Brazil
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