*AV* ONTK, IDTI, CRUS
ONTK 21 and a pinch
IDTI 10 and a pinch
CRUS 14.875 and a pinch
a pinch= plus or minus 1/8-3/8 (not at home so actual figures vary since my mind is juggling other items as I write)
In the semis, I see these giving me my biggest bang for the buck right now. However, keep in mind that I have more than my fair share of UTEK and WFR. Should any of these revisit sub 25, I will be buying more.
The need for epi wafers for advanced technologies will make WFR a very good core holding. Everything in the marketplace, IMHO, is pointing directly to a ramp in advanced technologies. Look at the following stocks as a mini-semi index:
CFMT - contamination free manufacturing (ultra clean cleaning process)
DPMI - advanced reticles and mask tooling
PLAB - advanced reticles and mask tooling
ONTK - cleaning stations for Chemical Mechanical Polishers used to planarizethe advanced process devices below 0.5u. Works well above also.
AMAT - premier provider of advanced techology processing tools
SVGI - Micrascan DUV stppers for Intel and a few others for advanced technolgies and a premier supplier of coat/develop or diffusion systems.
FSII - cryogenic cleaning equipment and cluster tools for lithography, not to mention standard cleaning systems
ASMLF - DUV (deep UV) exposure tool for advanced processing below 0.35u and for state of the art DRAM manufacturing (same for SVGI)
CYMI - Deep UV source for most of the top tier DUV stepper providers
I am looking to add a 10 name to this list and actually track this list as the AVHTI (Andrew Vance High Tech Index). It will be of great interest to me and should provide enjoyment to others if the index predicts the sector in either direction. As I write this, my little birdie just told me that WFR should be here because if its epi wafers.
There you have it, the 10 stocks in the AVHTI.
WFR below 24 will be an extremely attractive acquisition for anyone. At those prices, a simple run to 30 creates a good profit for all involved. It will make it there and beyond, IMO.
Yes, I read the Feb upside article and was dismayed by it. From my personal experiences (up to and including this exact moment), I beleive it is accurate but old news. I am seeing a pick up in orders in the industry and I beleive the Koreans are about to try to raise DRAM prices by cutting back on production (causing a slight shortage).
The activity at the mask houses tells me that design activity has not tapered off and that new devices are in the pipeline. From pipeline to production to balance sheet revenues sometimes takes time.
I can find no other reasons for such low P/E ratios except for the discounting you mentioned with one caveat. The P/Es have risen from the high single digits/low teens to the high teens and approaching 20+. |
