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Non-Tech : GRIN (Grand Toys International Inc)

GRIN 27.56

-1.2%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: katmando who wrote (130)	1/25/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: Frank McVerry	Read Replies (1) of 495

<< 1. Let me play back my understanding of your previous posts regarding actual vs forecasted eps: 1Q98=.15(Act); 2Q98=.01(Act); 3Q98=.25(Act); 4Q98=.30(Rev Fcst). Previous 4Q98 Fcst=.44(12.11.98). I'm not concerned about 1999 until I see 4Q98 Actuals.>> ...Looks good. The difference in my 4Q forecasts being my latest guesswork on their 4Q Furby sales. << 2. When do they announce 4Q98 earnings? Off the top, do you know 4Q97 eps? Your revised .30 for 4Q may look decent compared to same qtr 97. >> 4Q earnings by 3rd week in Feb. I think 4Q97 was .41 - their best ever quarter. This years earnings seem to be running about 70 - 75% of '97, due to their more difficult trading conditions (Can$/Asia/ToysRUs) so I just took 70% of the 4Q97 and threw in a few Furby sales to get my .30. The Can$ has been improving since Sep '98 but probably won't help until 1999. << 3. With the price dropping, this might be buying time. >> Volatility seems to be characteristic of lightly-traded small-caps. I recall Peter Lynch saying (paraphrase) 'the market will give you many opportunities to buy a great company' and never quite appreciated what that meant until now. Looks to me like a few investors are getting impatient and moving-on (hopefully not to internet stocks!). Could be we will still see some nice buying opportunities providing their 'story' is still good (or getting better IMHO). Regards, Frank

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