David......PLUMBER'S BUTT, that my name.....NUDITY, that's my game
LIAR'S POKER----that's the markets game
down to the last 2 scenarios now
#1...as you posted, S&P/DOW topped Jan 8 or 11, wave 1 down to 1/15
wave 2 up(a 3 waver, abc) a: up to 1/20.....b: down now completing..
c: back up towards highs and once completed the real decline starts
supporting the wave c failed rally back up? lots of decent earnings came out while market declined Jan. 20,21,22 and more to come this week, many will see this as an opportunity to buy companies on the dip as they post decent earnings.....also, i believe the NAZ topped on the 20th, i would expect a bounce off it's 1st deline from it's top and i suspect a bit of a NUTZ bounce from sharp declines aided by short profit taking
#2 S&P/DOW topped Jan 8/11.....wave 1 down to 1/15.....wave 2 up to 1/20 as an abc......wave 3 down started the 20th, and we are now completing 1 of wave 3 down, 2 up of wave 3 will be the suspected rally but will not extend nearly as high as the c wave rally of scenario 1 above....then the sharp decline starts
either way the results will be the same, DOW 8000/-8000 coming
unfortunately the possibility of a strong 'wave c' rally, as in
scenario #1, makes it difficult for me to risk a large PUT position
at this time
from my private message you know that last week i had taken PUTS on MU and CALLS on DBCC(a NUT)....i cashed in the MU PUTS on Friday morning and held the DBCC till the end of the day.....The DBCC i had gotten near the bottom on 1/21, i was anticipating a NUTZ short cover rally with DBCC hopefully breaking resistance at 20 and shooting into mid/upper 20's...it stalled just under 20...i cashed for nice profit but no 3,4 or 5 bagger...chickened out
i took my first index PUTS, a very small position near the close, on the chance that scenario #2 is developing and that the rest of wave 1 of wave 3 would take us lower than the B wave of scenario #1
so i have.................................................
PLUMBER'S BUTT.....i know you and many others around here would like to see me SCREAMING NAKED RUNNING UP THE STEPS OF THE NYSE,MY BODY SMEARED WITH BULL DUNG AND ENTRAILS,MY HAIR SPIKED UP LIKE ALFALFA; THE GOODYEAR BLIMP,CONVERTED INTO THE WORLDS LARGEST ENEMA WITH ITS SIGNS FLASHING DOW 10,000 IN TOW.......
but for now just call me Plumber's Butt
so with monkey wrench in hand, i bid you a good night
Mr. Drano |
