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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (3927)	1/25/1999 7:02:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 5676

Claude, Re: EW counts >>When I observe the many EWT practioners various counts, I conclude that this theory is far from perfect science. Indeed it is far from perfect science, and leaves a lot to personal interpretations. I already noted that hindsight is a very important tool in determining the scale of waves. The recent rise from 10/8 could be named minute 1 of minor 5 or the whole minor 5, and until the future brings confirmation (a new high to void the whole minor 5 count or a new low to void the minute 1 count) both counts are valid. >>But there are so many counts around that a beginner like me has problem finding the good one. IMO EWT gives you the big picture. It doesn't have to be accurate on a daily basis. The count until 1994 is IMO solid. The many corrections 96-98 and lack of hindsight makes it difficult to assign the correct scale to the market's rallys and corrections. In previous posts I counted 7-10/98 as Intermediate 4. The breadth top indicator described in my recent posts made me change my mind. Counting based on this indicator makes said period only minor 4 and sees Intermediate 4 of Primary 5 (same as '68) in the forseeable future. If the evidence for such a major correction accumulate, then you know what to expect. Such evidence can be obtained from various sources: the internet sector, for example- If the nuts can challenge their highs (which I seriously doubt) then we may have only completed minute 1 of minor 5. If, however, the internuts break down from a trading range, then it looks like the party's over. >>So I am still watching and learning. Me too. I embraced EWT because I strongly believe in economic and market cycles (an anachronism these days). With the constant improvements I'm trying to introduce to my count I hope that I would be able to refine it and make it a tool with good medium term predictions. ATG

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